Monday, April 9, 2018

The Availability Heuristic


Time for another nerdy post! But, I promise to tie it in to a contemporary topic.

Lately, I have been thinking about something called "The Availability Heuristic" (AH). AH comes from the work of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. If you do not know the names of these two gentleman, pay extra attention to this post, because it will be important.

For his work, Kahneman ended up receiving the Nobel Prize. Tversky would have been awarded, as well, however, the Nobel Prize is not given posthumously.

The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that people use. It effectively says, "If something is important, I will hear about it." Conversely, "If I have not heard about something, it must not be important."

This shortcut can be innocent enough. But, it can also cause a lot of problems. Let me flesh-out this idea, by using Grant Cardone as an example, since he is getting a lot of attention online.

Cardone might not be familiar with the term "availability heuristic." However, AH is central to what he does. It is Grant's stated goal to become known by all seven billion of the earth's inhabitants.

Cardone wants everybody to know his name. Because, as Grant himself says, "Money and power follow attention." And, a big reason money and power follow attention is because of AH.

Let me tell you a secret. And, if you are seasoned entrepreneur, you already know this. Grant Cardone is NOT the world's best sales trainer. Oh sure, he claims to be. But, he ain't.

One thing Cardone IS great at is self-promotion. And, I do respect the fact that Grant is very transparent about what he is doing. He is using AH is amass money and power. Whether or not this is fair-game is for you to decide.

The reason I am making this post is to reveal another secret. A lot of the world's most important work is being done by people you have never heard of. Tversky and Kahneman being two examples.

So, this ends up being something of a paradox. As an entrepreneur, you need to get lots of attention for yourself. Yet, it is probably best to not listen to people who get lots of attention for themselves.

I pay attention to people like Grant Cardone, and Donald Trump, as case studies in self-promotion. Is Donald Trump the world's greatest real estate developer? Of course not. However, amongst the world's real estate developers, he might be the greatest self-promoter.

What I am recommending is the following. You need to learn how to dig. You need to learn how to sift through the BS. Because, there is a lot of BS out there!

It was the French economist, Jean-Bastiste Say, who coined the word "entrepreneur." And, Say said, “The entrepreneur shifts economic resources out of an area of lower and into an area of higher productivity and greater yield.”


According to Say's definition, I would argue Warren Buffett is the world's greatest entrepreneur. And, as you may know, Buffett attributes most of his success to his ability to think for himself. 

This is important! Do not let the availability heuristic get the best of you. Learn to think for yourself.