Live Experimentally

I said last week would probably be the end of my discussion on inaction. What can I say? I changed my mind. This is such a terribly important idea, I have decided to continue. I've decided to keep taking action on the concept of inaction. Is that a paradox?

This week we need to talk about imagination. Imagination is such a fascinating concept. Albert Einstein is quoted as saying “Imagination is more important than knowledge. For knowledge is limited to all we now know and understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all there ever will be to know and understand.”

The powers of human imagination are very romantic, even sexy. A lot of people gobble up the idea that imagination is more important than knowledge. It's such an egalitarian notion. I mean, we all have an imagination, don't we? We all have an equal ability to imagine. At least in theory. And so to hear Einstein, the world's smartest person, downplay the importance of knowledge feels so empowering. It makes us feel as though we too can change the world.

I do believe anybody can change the world. And, imagination is definitely the first step to making that change. I am a daydreamer and I encourage you to be one as well. Dream of the future you wish to create and then simply keep moving towards it. You see, a lot of people sell dreams and I think it's a very valuable service. Thinking about the future can be a very enjoyable activity. But, today I want to talk about the element of our imagination that holds us back.

You see, like anything, imagination is not necessarily a good thing. I mean, if it really were as simple as dreaming about the future, and then creating that very dream, wouldn't we all do it? Wouldn't we all feel as though we're blissfully dancing across the clouds? But, we don't always feel that way, do we? So, what went wrong? Unfortunately, it's your imagination that's the problem. The very same imagination that started the train down the tracks, towards our bliss, also is responsible for derailing our dreams. Imagination is both the problem and the solution. Now, that's a serious paradox! So, follow me on this one.

Let's revisit that question. Riddle me this, is imagination a good thing? The truth is, you can't answer yes or no to that question. It all depends on what you're imagining. With all due respect to my boy Einstein, I think we need some knowledge on what it is we should be imagining. Because not all dreams and imaginations are created equal. Like I've said, I do encourage you to dream about good things. This is a great way to generate the motivation and inspiration to take the necessary action.

But, sometimes you need to be prepared to punch the devil in the face. Have you ever heard it said that an idle mind is the devil's playground? Without the proper attention and effort, really bad thoughts can creep into your consciousness. What we need to talk about are the feelings created by anxious thoughts. And yes, as a reminder, our feelings are created by our thoughts.

What we know is that anxiety is a product of our imagination. This is a fact. Fear and anxiety exist in the future. Let me restate that a little more accurately. The feeling of fear/anxiety happens in the present. But the thoughts that generate the feeling are thoughts about the future. You can't feel fear about an event in the past. So, another way to say it is that anxiety is anticipatory. That is to say, fear/anxiety exist only in our imagination. It is for this reason that I think we need a little clarity on the value of imagination. Imagination can be a good thing and it can also be a bad thing.

As I've mentioned, this post is about inaction. And a lot of inaction is caused by fear. We fear what will happen as the result of our actions so we do nothing. We doubt our abilities which causes us to be nervous. But, as it turns out, a lot of what we fear (perhaps most) never happens. Thus, we often fret over nothing. I think this is the very essence of what Jack Paar meant when he said, “My life is one long obstacle course with me as the chief obstacle.”

We know that avoidance is the hallmark of anxiety. The way most people cope with anxiety is by avoiding whatever it is that causes them to feel fearful. Avoidance is also a synonym for inaction. So, let me tell you this, I think there's a better way to cope with fear than avoidance or inaction. A great way to deal with anxiety is the following, “Live experimentally.” What do I mean by that? I mean it's a good idea to view your life as an ongoing experiment. Don't catastrophize over what may, or may not, happen because most of it won't happen (catastrophize being a word coined by the great Albert Ellis.) Instead, take action with a focus on what it is that you can learn from the things you do. Aiming for feedback, rather than success or perfection, is a great way to take the pressure off.

Living experimentally is an idea that I also wrote about here: N = 1

Simply having the mindset of an experiment, visualizing yourself as an experimenter, can often do the trick. However, sometimes you have to be a little more specific. So, let me help you set up and run a good experiment. Next time you are avoiding something, slow down and ask yourself what it is that's scaring you. Is it a negative consequence, is it doubt, is it shame? Make a list of all the negative outcomes, you imagine happening, if you go ahead and do the thing you are avoiding. Really sit down and take some time with it. Then go ahead and do that thing you're avoiding. Afterward, pull out the list and see what portion of the things that you predicted actually came true. What you will create is hard evidence that a lot of what we fear never even happens. And, the brain loves concrete evidence!

I realize not all of life has to be approached in such a nerdy fashion. (Hey! Nerdy fashion, there's a paradox for ya!) I also realize that being so meticulous takes work and isn't very romantic. But, above all, I know that sometimes we get stuck. And, we need techniques and tactics which, while requiring us to slow down now, allow us to speed up later. The paradox of living experimentally is that we slow down in order to speed up.

Why You Shouldn't Suck Your Thumb

This week will likely end up being the last of a three-part series. I didn't intend to make a three-part series. I simply started writing, one day, while I was watching a baseball game. The game led to my post of two weeks ago. That post, the “reverse K” post, was about being called out on strikes. It was about the inexcusably sad nature of inaction. Here's the link if you haven't read it: Opening Day

Then, last week, I talked about the science of inaction and regret. Specifically, I talked about the findings of a hardcore, Harvard scientist named Daniel Gilbert. In the post I even mentioned a research study by two Cornell psychologists. So, whereas talking about baseball is rather whimsical, talking about rigorous science is much more concrete. If you didn't read last week's post here it is: The Importance of Do Do

So, for this week, I thought I'd take something more in the middle of the road. I want to talk about inaction and regret from an anecdotal perspective relating to the world high-finance. You see, like a lot of people, I am a huge fan of Warren Buffett. As you probably know, Warren's company is called Berkshire Hathaway. When he bought the company, BH was a textile manufacturing firm in New Bedford, Massachusetts. Today, Berkshire's mills are closed and the company no longer makes clothing.

What's more, Buffett and his partner, Charlie Munger, are very clear in saying that buying Berkshire Hathaway was a mistake. And yet, even though he has the power to change it, Buffett has kept the company named after a mistake. Why? Well, he probably wouldn't say it this way but, Mr. Buffett has a psychological immune system. (See last week's post)

You see, Warren has no problem with making mistakes. He says mistakes are inevitable. What drives him and Charlie nuts is what they call “Thumb-sucking.” By thumb-sucking they mean sitting around like a baby doing nothing. In fact, when asked, what was his biggest investment mistake ever, Buffett is very clear. His biggest mistakes were NOT errors of commission but rather they were errors of omission. Meaning, his biggest mistakes were not what he did, i.e. buying a struggling textile company. His biggest mistakes were the things he didn't do. These are the things people don't see because they don't show up in any report. They are the times when he knew enough to act, but he failed to pull the trigger.

Here's a short, one-minute video where Buffett says this exact thing:

YouTube video number one

If you dig Buffett, like I do, here's a lengthier video for your viewing pleasure:

YouTube video number two

Now, I have to imagine you have heard the name Jack Welch. Welch is the famed former CEO of General Electric. If you haven't already, I encourage you to read Jack's autobiography title Straight From The Gut. In the book you will see a photograph with Welch standing next to Buffet. In the caption of the photograph, Welch refers to Buffett as, “The smartest guy in any room.” Quite a compliment coming from one of history's more successful CEO's.

And it is true that Warren Buffett is ridiculously intelligent. If you're goal is business success, you should definitely read his annual reports and his authorized biography titled The Snowball. At any rate, to list all the ways that Buffett is a genius would take a very long time. Right now, I'd just like to point out his marvelous ability to look into the mirror objectively.

Looking in the mirror, and being honest with yourself, is a very hard thing to do. But it is also very useful. It's a big element of Buffett and Munger's success. Here are two gentlemen who are astonishing rational. They accept life as it is and not as they wish it would be. As an illustrative side note, let me tell you about an experience Charlie had. Munger went in for eye surgery and the doctor botched it. The eye ended up having to be eviscerated and Charlie has long been able to see through only one eye. Did this destroy Munger's life? Hardly. Charlie simply reasoned that, statistically speaking, surgical mistakes are bound to happen. And it just so happened that he was the recipient of this most undesirable gift. So, he decided to just get on with life. Pretty amazing perspective, wouldn't you say?

Anyways, back to the point of this post. What Munger and Buffett clearly understand is how they arrived at where they're at. They understand that they're biggest regrets, they're biggest mistakes, were errors of omission rather than acts of commission. Stated differently, their biggest mistakes were the result of inaction. To guard against our natural tendency to do-nothing (procrastinate), Warren and Charlie warn against the dangers of “Thumb-sucking.” Thumb-sucking is for babies who sit around and do nothing. Be careful to not fail into that trap.

So, now you have three ways to think about this lesson. The lesson being that action, while prone to error, is far superior to inaction. You can think of the baseball analogy and the backwards K. You can think of Do Do. Or you can think of Thumb-sucking. And, of course, it's possible that you have an even better symbol to place in your memory (And, if you do, I'd love to hear it). The point is, it doesn't matter how you remember the lesson. The important thing is to remember that Do Do is better than Thumb-Sucking, K?

The Importance of Do Do

Last week I wrote about the reverse K, about striking out with the bat on your shoulder. That is to say, I wrote about the pathetic nature of inaction. And it got me to thinking about Dan Gilbert.

Who is Dan Gilbert? Very simply, he's the real deal. You may, or may not, have heard of Mr. Gilbert. He's a professor of psychology at Harvard University. Even if you haven't heard of Dan, chances are you have seen him. The Prudential company recently used Gilbert in their television ads.

Have you seen the TV commercial that asks people how old is the oldest person they have ever known? The commercial was shot in Austin, Texas and they asked people to help them construct a graph. They gave people a blue dot and asked them to stick it on a wall to visually illustrate how far people are living past the official age of retirement.

The host of the advertisement is a bald guy with glasses and a goatee. That guy is Dan Gilbert. Several years ago Dan wrote a fantastic book titled Stumbling on Happiness. If you haven't already read it, I can't recommend the book highly enough. Over time, I'm sure I will talk about various items from the book. One of the things Gilbert talks about is how humans have something he calls a, “Psychological immune system.”

I won't get into it too much, right now, other than to quote Gilbert who says the psychological immune system, “Defends the mind against unhappiness in much the same way that the physical immune system defends the body against illness.” Think of the story of a young man who crashes his motorcycle and becomes a paraplegic. When asked, the young man will tell you he is much happier today than he was when he could walk. Kind of odd, right?

How could that be? Well, the psychological immune system kicked in, that's how. You see, prior to the accident this young man was simply stumbling through life without much direction or sense of purpose. Today he coaches newly paralyzed people to help them adjust to life in a wheelchair. Instead of dwelling on the loss of the his legs, he is now focused on the good he can do for the world. With the help of his psychological immune system, this man's life now has meaning, purpose, and joy.

I say all that to simply set the stage. What I really want to talk about is regret. And what I have to say ties directly in to last week's post. If you haven't read it already, here's a link: Opening Day

Back in 1995 two Cornell psychologists wrote a great paper titled The Experience of Regret. What we know, pretty much beyond all doubt, is that people regret the things they don't do much more than the things they do do.

Please allow me to quote from Stumbling on Happiness, “Consider this scenario. You own shares in Company A. During the past year you considered switching to stock in Company B but decided against it. You now find that you would have been better off by $1,200 if you had switched to the stock of Company B. You also owned shares in Company C. During the past year you switched to stock in Company D. You now find out that you'd have been better off by $1,200 if you kept your stock in Company C. Which error causes you more regret? Studies show that about nine out of ten people expect to feel more regret when they foolishly switch stocks than when they foolishly fail to switch stocks, because most people think they will regret foolish actions more than foolish inactions. But studies also show that nine out of ten people are wrong. Indeed, in the long run, people of every age and in every walk of life seem to regret not having done things much more than they regret things they did, which is why the most popular regrets include not going to college, not grasping profitable business opportunities, and not spending enough time with family and friends.

“But why do people regret inactions more than actions? One reason is that the psychological immune system has a more difficult time manufacturing positive and credible views of inactions than of actions. When our action causes us to accept a marriage proposal from someone who later becomes an axe murderer, we can console ourselves by thinking of all the things we learned from the experience (“Collecting hatchets is not a healthy hobby”). But when our inaction causes us to reject a marriage proposal from someone who later becomes a movie star, who can't console ourselves by thinking of all the things we learned from the experience because … well, there wasn't one. The irony is all too clear: Because we do not realize that our psychological immune system can rationalize an excess of courage more easily than an excess of cowardice, we hedge our bets when we should blunder forward.”

To paraphrase Mr. Gilbert we are better off with an excess of courage than we are with an excess of cowardice. As the professor recommends, "We should blunder forward." This is such a critically important idea to internalize and master. Because I'm a big fan of baseball, I like to visualize the symbol that is the backwards K. But maybe you'd prefer to think about Gilbert's much more humorous example of failing to pull the trigger on a future movie star. Or maybe you have your own example. However you choose to think about it, it's extremely wise to remember that in life we regret the things we don't do much more than the things we do do.

Opening Day

One week ago today was opening day for Major League Baseball. America's pastime. Most teams played the first of the 162 games they will play, this year, during the regular season. It's a very exciting time for players and fans alike.

Being from Orange County California I am, of course, partial to the Anaheim Angels. So, when the Seattle Mariners came to “The Big A,” for opening night, you know I was watching. One of the great things about opening day is that each team sends their ace to the mound to start the game. For the Angels, that meant the tall, lean Jered Weaver was first to take the bump.

In the top of the first inning Weaver set the Mariners down 1-2-3. The inning was ended when Seattle's new slugger, Robinson Cano, grounded a sharply hit ball to the shortstop Erick Aybar. Aybar fielded the ball cleanly and tossed it over to Albert Pujols to record the out. If you were keeping score you would write “6-3” next to Cano's name.

Leading off the game for the Angels was right fielder Kole Calhoun. On the mound, for the Mariners, was the imposing Cy Young Award winning Felix Hernandez. King Felix as they call him. After taking two straight balls, Calhoun hit a line drive to right field for a single. And in steps Mike Trout.

Trout is only 22 years old but he is already making a name for himself in MLB. The Angels recently recognized Mike's brilliance by signing the youngster to a six-year contract extension. Immediately Trout began earning his money. On a 1-1 count, Hernandez throws him an inside slider and Mike crushes the ball into the second bullpen for a home run. The crowd explodes.

Baseball, like life, is a game of momentum. When the wind is at your back, and things are going your way, you want to capitalize. As the next batter, Albert Pujols, checks into the batter's box, the stadium is still buzzing. And that's were my story really begins.

King Felix throws Pujols a 2-2 fastball, right down the middle of the plate. What does the Angels' MVP do? He pops a foul ball behind the plate which is caught, by Seattle's catcher Mike Zunino, for the first out of the inning. But it gets worse. Next up is Josh Hamilton. This is Josh's second year playing for the Halos and last year was quite a disappointment. Having just signed a five-year $125 million contract, the expectations for Hamilton were high. And 2013 turned out to be the worst offensive year of Josh's career.

Perhaps time for some redemption. In the box, Hamilton is a big, strong left-handed beast. And he bats clean-up. Throughout the history of baseball the fourth slot in the lineup (clean-up) has been reserved for the team's best run producer. In recent years that has more shifted to the third spot, but let's not split hairs. The fact is Hamilton can flat out rake. And in 2010 he was honored as the league's Most Valuable Player.

Josh takes the first pitch, a fastball on the outside corner, for a called strike. Next Hernandez throws a sinker and Hamilton swings right throw it. On the 0-2 count Mr. Clean-Up takes a fastball, right down the middle, for a called third strike. A terrible at-bat.

And, it got me to thinking about one of the saddest symbols in baseball. Early I mentioned that a ground out to shortstop is recorded as “6-3.” The shortstop is position number six on the field and first base is position number three. Hence the notation. The way the recorder would note what Hamilton did would be with a backwards K. It would look like this:

In the parlance of baseball, the letter K stands for strikeout. Actually there's a little more to it. The letter K, more accurately, means a strikeout where the batter swings the bat. When the batter doesn't swing, the out is recorded as a reverse or backwards K. Like above.

In a lot of ball parks you will see fans keeping records very publicly. The hometown crowd will often record their pitchers' strikeouts for everyone to see. It looks like this:

I'm not sure which game, or ball park, that was at. From the guy on the left, it looks like it may have been the Washington Nationals. But that is neither here nor there. As you can see, ten of the visiting players have been struckout that day. Nine of the times, the player swung the bat. And only once was he caught looking. That's what they call it, “Caught looking.” As the out batter walks back to the dugout, a good heckler might inquire as to how much the batter had paid for his seat :)

For me, that symbol, the reverse K, is so germane to life in general. It's okay to strikeout. Even the biggest boppers strikeout more often than they hit home runs. Everybody knows, Babe Ruth hit 714 home runs during his career. And "Hammering" Hank Aaron hit 755. But, how many strikeouts did he have? Nobody knows. I had to look it up! The answer is 1383. But nobody cares. We easily forgive failure. What we have a hard time accepting is inaction. To not even try, that's practically unforgivable (Especially when you're making $30M a year.)

So, this week, remember, don't get rung-up looking. As I once heard Dale Murphy say, “Swing hard, in case you hit it.”