The barrier to the existence of business prodigies

Last time we covered my belief that there will never be a business prodigy. And if you read that post, you know I believe the claim is a fact. Today, I want to dig a little deeper.

Ever since it was created and popularized, many people have heard of Malcolm Gladwell’s so-called 10,000 hour rule. The 10,000 hour rule says, in any field it takes 10,000 hours of “deliberate” practice to achieve an expert level of performance. If you aren’t aware, the majority of the research which led to Gladwell’s 10,000 hour rule was done by the late Florida State professor Anders Ericsson.

First, allow me to point out two small but important clarifications. For those of you aware enough to know it isn’t a rule, you are correct. It isn’t a rule, it is an average. And second, in his research Ericsson found expert performance required approximately 10 years and 10,000 hours of deliberate practice. So, while Gladwell spoke mostly about the hours, Ericsson spoke mostly about the years. At any rate, neither of those two clarifications get to the most critical things to know about expert performance.

By the way, if you recall from last time we have defined a prodigy as a young master. And to integrate our verbiage with Ercisson’s, a master can be considered synonymous with an expert. As stated, Ericsson found expert performance required approximately 10 years and 10,000 hours of deliberate practice. And a key thing to know is, Ericsson made a clear distinction between what he called “deliberate” practice and “purposeful” practice.

Before we understand deliberate versus purposeful practice, we should know what the practice of experts is not. Expert practice isn’t simply repetition. For example, many people go to the driving range to hit a bucket of golf balls, and often they call it practice, but it wouldn’t qualify as Ericssonian practice.

To qualify as the practice that builds masters and experts, first the task must be differentiated into its constituent parts. Not for a moment would I call myself a golf coach, but let us stay with the golfing example. Although it isn’t the only element, clearly a key element of golfing performance is your swing.

Again I am a novice golfer at best, but it isn’t controversial to say a golf swing consists of things like: stance, weight distribution, grip, back swing, weight shifting, point of contact, follow through, etc. If you break down your swing on your own, and diligently work on each part, you would essentially qualify for what Ericsson calls purposeful practice.

To illustrate purposeful practice, an example Ericsson often used is one of his research subjects named Steve Faloon. As part of his research, Ericsson would bring people into his “lab” to test how long of a number they can memorize. Ericsson found the average person could memorize a number containing a maximum of seven digits. Incidentally, it isn’t surprising telephone numbers have seven digits.

So, you could imagine Ericsson’s surprise when along came Faloon who could memorize up to 82 digits. A more than 10x improvement! Obviously, Ericsson asked Faloon how he did it. One of Falooon’s main techniques he called “chunking.” Instead of trying to memorize the number one digit at the time, Faloon chunked the digits into groups of four and associated those groups with common things in his existing memory. For example, if the number included the digits 1-2-5-1, you could simply remember the legendary song of the same name by the band The Strokes.

Listen, to me memorizing long numbers sounds utterly boring and useless. But, the reason I gave you the example is the following. The main difference between purposeful practice and deliberate practice is whether you are utilizing a proven, effective training system. Steve Faloon created the memorization system on his own, which means he was doing purposeful practice not deliberate practice. But when Faloon taught one of the research subjects his proven, effective system, that person was able to do deliberate practice. And, unsurprisingly, that person broke Faloon’s record of a number with 82 digits.

To switch back and finish the golf example, most golfers might be called weekend warriors who are stitching together their own practicing system. For a golfer to qualify as doing deliberate practice, s/he would need a golf pro to teach them a proven, effective training system. And when you are doing deliberate practice, it will take 10,000 hours to achieve an expert level of performance. It is the shortest path to mastery. Purposeful practice takes longer.

Another example Ericsson often used for deliberate practice is the famed Suzuki method for learning to play the piano. But one main thing to consider is the fact that, compared to business, golf and piano are relatively simple tasks. In fact, business is so complex there exists few if any proven, effective training systems. This is why I so often speak of Peter Drucker. Probably only Drucker’s system could take you from purposeful to deliberate practice. Or, perhaps you can hire Satya Nadella to coach you. But I doubt it. Better to ride with me and Drucker.

You shouldn’t be surprised to learn deliberate practice is a faster path to mastery than purposeful practice. Right? Because, while both are very difficult and taxing, with purposeful practice you also have to invent an effective training system. It is for these reasons I can confidently state there will never be a business prodigy. Even if I taught them a proven system, they would have to start practicing at age 8 to achieve mastery before adulthood. Do you know any 8 eight years trying to practice business skills?

There will never be a business prodigy

In the social sciences it is often repeated that you should never make a never statement. The reason is because never is an awfully long time, and if the event does occur your credibility is damaged. Fair enough.

Having said that I will repeat the title of this post, there will never be a business prodigy. So, obviously, if there ever is a business prodigy my reputation will be damaged. And, I completely welcome that day.

The reason I invite being disproven is two fold. For one, I am a scientist and the scientific method revolves around a concept called falsifiability. In other words, if you live by facts and truth you must remain open to being disproven. But secondly, I am very confident my claim will never prove wrong. I shall explain.

First, we need to be clear with our semantics. In my claim, the only non-obvious term is “prodigy.” I don’t believe it is controversial to define a prodigy as a young master. But an immediate problem arises, namely the definition of the word young. So, hopefully you can agree with me that children qualify as young.

So to restate my claim, there never has been and never will be a child who has mastered business. The reason? The skills needed to master business simply cannot be acquired in the first 18 years of life.

I say this because free enterprise often incentivizes deception and bullshit. Specifically, there are lots of talking heads on the internet who promise they possess a super secret, revolutionary breakthrough shortcut, that can get you to business mastery in no time (if only you fork over $998 to join their inner circle mastermind lol).

The whole premise is built on bullshit. What they are really selling is a childish version of hope, because they can argue the inspiration alone is worth $1,000. So, when the promise of business mastery doesn’t materialize you don’t necessarily feel cheated. The obvious problem is inspiration rarely builds a successful business. Skills build successful businesses.

What will Ai do?

The hype and fear surrounding artificial intelligence (Ai) is truly something to behold. Right now, the main thing we know about Ai is it will be used to deceive. It is a future that is already happening. We all know about deep fakes and voice cloning, and all that jazz. And it is a real problem. Strong caution is obviously warranted.

Another future that has already happened, full of humorous irony, is Ai taking on an increasing share of the job of computer programming, with the obvious irony being that computer programmers created Ai, which is now reducing the need for computer programmers.

Last time we discussed the skill of mentalization, and it is definitely an important skill. Building off that idea, one compelling possibility is Ai’s ability to help you and i develop our mentalization skills. In other words, it does seem to be the case that Ai can help you to better understand yourself. As an example, i have attached a recent interaction i had with Microsoft’s CoPilot.

What Would Jesus Do?

I trust you have heard the question “What would Jesus do?” It is often relayed as the acronym WWJD, and I think it has a great idea. Today I am going to explain the most important, yet hidden, meaning of the question. To do that we will take a brief journey into the world of psychology.

Nowadays there is an awareness of the importance of an ability called empathy. A simple definition of empathy is “the ability to understand and share the feelings of another,” and I agree it is an important skill. That said, there exists a larger and more valuable ability called mentalization.

In the 1990s in England, two psychologists named Peter Fonagy and Anthony Bateman created a treatment modality called mentalization based therapy. A simple definition of mentalization is “the ability to understand one's own and others' mental states.” Better yet, here is Peter Fonagy himself to define mentalization.

Hopefully you can see how the question “What would Jesus do?” is excellent practice, helping you develop the ability to mentalize. But, of course, the question can be used with any person.

I will use myself as an example. In addition to Jesus, when making an important decision, I often ask myself what Peter Drucker, or Warren Buffett, or Liah Greenfeld, or Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi would do. And as the last three posts on this blog should have made clear, I sometimes even ask myself “What would Gary Vaynerchuk do?”

Yes empathy is important, but mentalization is even better. Mentalization is an important part of both effectiveness and entrepreneurship. So as a friendly piece of advice, I recommend you study your mentors and customers until you are able to think, feel and act the way they do.

Gary Vee is human, too

I am a long time student of Gary Vaynerchuk and felt compelled to comment. On a recent live stream, Gary told a caller to stop overthinking the name she was planning for her LLC. The advice is sound, but Gary missed some important context.

If you are a student of GV, you know one of the main things he teaches is the importance of branding. And because branding can be so valuable, it is completely understandable that people overthink what to name their LLC. The solution is two fold, and the first solution Gary did explain on the live stream.

The first part of the solution is to understand something called DBA, or "Doing Business As." If you aren't familiar with DBA, it means you can operate a business under a name that has nothing to do with the name of the LLC which owns said business. Gary gave a personal example where one of his LLCs is named "Attention At Scale," which isn't the name of any of the companies he runs.

But, unfortunately Gary overlooked a second and more important lesson. Before I explain, I will note this oversight is completely understandable in light of the fact that his live stream interactions are necessarily short. Had Gary had a more lengthy conversation with the lady, he surely would have explained the second part of the solution. The second part is very simply this, as a general rule, less developed entrepreneurs wildly overestimate the importance of their company's name.

Again, this mistake is perfectly understandable because of the importance of brand. I look back with amusement (and a bit of embarrassment) at the way I too overthought the name of a company. And again, Gary's story sheds some useful light on the subject. Apparently, Gary's dad's (Sasha) small business was doing about $4M in annual sales when Gary joined. Doing $4M in sales certainly qualifies Sasha's business as a success, and yet the name of the company wasn't great for branding. The name was "Shoppers Discount Liquors."

Here is the moral of the story, today that same company is called "Wine Library" and is doing on the order of $60M per year. But don't get it twisted, the name of the company wasn't the main cause of its increased success. The real cause of success was delivering long-term value to its customers. For example, Gary has never sold Kendall Jackson chardonnay nor Santa Margherita pinot grigio. The reason isn't because Wine Library doesn't carry those labels, the reason is because Gary knows better chardonnays and pinot grigios, usually at lower prices. The point being, as an entrepreneur your focus (indeed your obsession) should be delivering real value to your customers. That is what will determine the success of your company, much more than its name. And at any time, if necessary YOU CAN CHANGE THE NAME OF YOUR COMPANY. So don't overthink it!

Again, I am a serious student of GV. In fact, I am enough of a student to know one of his blind spots. As a recent Instagram post about "Just Do" indicates, Gary learns by doing. But, believe it or not, lots of people aren't like that. Lots of people learn by listening to people like Gary! My point is this, if you were fortunate enough to spend ten years working in your parent's successful small business, you too would probably do most of your learning through doing. But, if you never had that sort of role model (and few people do) give yourself some grace and understand successful entrepreneurship takes a lot longer than you imagine.

I have lots of love for you, Gary. So much so, I felt compelled to write this lengthy post to help some of your students. OF COURSE you have to take action to succeed as an entrepreneur. But at the same time, learning by doing isn't always the fastest path. I end with advice I think GV would agree with: Go as fast as you sustainably can, while remaining patient with however long it takes to arrive at your promised land.

Truth > Positivity

Believe it or not, I actually like Gary Vaynerchuk. Haha! Last time, I disagreed with Gary’s insistence on the importance of humility. And this week, I will disagree with Gary’s insistence that we be positive.

Unlike the humility thing, I didn’t talk with Gary about positivity. But perhaps I should. Because, again, I think truth is more important than either humility or positivity. In reality, there are probably few things more important than truth. As the Bible famously says, the truth will set you free. So, please allow me to derive the importance of positivity by explaining its relationship to truth.

A core truth is that life is fundamentally about growth. And, while every other animal basically only grows physically, humans have another dimension called consciousness. And consciousness is open to unlimited growth. Whether you call it mind, soul or spirit, the most miserable people I know have stopped growing.

Now, let me bring in the work of Barbara Fredrickson (pictured below) who is a psychology professor at the University of North Carolina. Top among her many accomplishments, Fredrickson is best known for her broaden-and-build theory. More thoroughly, it is called the broaden-and-build theory of positive emotions.

Psychology has long identified and addressed negative emotions, so back in the 1990s Professor Fredrickson began asking “What is the point of positive emotions?” And while the question may seem rhetorical, the answer is worth knowing.

Fredrickson has rather conclusively demonstrated that positive emotions facilitate growth. More specifically, positive emotions broaden our mind and build our resources (aka grow us). Perhaps you can start to see why I believe truth is more important than positivity.

As stated, I think there is no question humans must grow. And as Fredrickson has shown, positivity is a precondition for growth. Now, perhaps you think I have argued in a circle and disproven myself. Nope. Watch this.

Just because positivity is a precondition of growth, doesn’t mean people utilize positivity to grow. In fact, a lot of people turn into what I call “inspiration junkies.” There is no question inspiration (and positive emotions generally) feels good. And a lot of people stop there, which is understandable because growth hurts. In other words, growing pains are a real thing, which often causes avoidance.

Given the choice being painful growth and remaining in delightful positivity, many people, understandably, choose the latter. This is essentially what it means to remain in your comfort zone, and it easily creates inspiration junkies who keep coming back for another hit.

So, am I just a Negative Nancy? Of course not. As stated, positivity is required for growth. And while positivity is pleasurable, growth is enjoyable. If you aren’t familiar, the difference between pleasure and enjoyment is growth. Delightful experiences such as a wonderful meal are pleasurable, but they don't cause our soul to grow. Conversely, life’s enjoyable experiences do involve psychological growth, but they aren’t usually pleasurable while they are occurring.

That last paragraph is a synopsis of one of the main takeaways from Mihalyi Csikszentmihalyi's legendary book Flow. The subtitle of the book is “The psychology of optimal experiences,” and Csikszentmihalyi does a great job of explaining the important difference between pleasure and enjoyment. But, we shall have to save a deeper dive into Flow for another day.

For today, I simply hope to make it clear that I love positivity. The thing is, I just love growth more. And if you have had flow experiences, I trust you would agree.

P.S. It is also rather clear that the best way to ignite positivity at work is through progress. More on that will be coming in another post.

Truth > Humility

I was recently speaking with Gary Vaynerchuk. We were discussing the importance of humility.

Usually known as Gary Vee, GV runs an advertising agency in New York. Additionally, he has a large social media presence. If you follow GV you have probably heard him exclaim the importance of humility. His and my particular conversation began when I said “Humility is overrated.”

After our conversation, it is clear to me that Gary and I are in agreement. And, the reason I am writing this post is because I think it is bullshit to tell people to be humble. If you don’t agree with me, allow me to give you my definition of bullshit. My definition of bullshit is “Knowingly or negligently spreading half-truth.” Before I continue, let me share with you Gary’s bio from the Twitch website.

GV’s bio on Twitch:
Gary Vaynerchuk is a serial entrepreneur, and serves as the Chairman of VaynerX, the CEO of VaynerMedia and the Creator & CEO of VeeFriends. Gary is considered one of the leading global minds on what’s next in culture, relevance and the internet. Known as “GaryVee” he is described as one of the most forward thinkers in business – he acutely recognizes trends and patterns early to help others understand how these shifts impact markets and consumer behavior.

Now, if I asked you to give me the top ten adjectives describing that bio, I highly doubt “humble” would be one of them. That isn’t a humble bio. Nor should it be! Let me explain.

Whether we are discussing mammals or electrons, there exists a well-known phenomenon called pair-bonding. And though we didn’t say it this way during our conversation, Gary and I agree humility is pair-bonded with confidence. In other words, you show me a truly confident person and I will show you a truly humble person, because the two things go together.

I think a big part of the confusion stems from the human ability to bullshit and make pretend. If you tell a person to be humble, most likely they will fake it. At the same time, if you tell a person to be confident, most likely they will fake it. The same goes for happiness, gratitude, and many of life’s most valuable virtues.

Though I didn’t say it at the time, I wish I would have told Gary truth is more important than humility (Truth > Humility). Because the truth is humility and confidence are pair-bonded, and a person cannot achieve real confidence without humility. And since people often fake humility, better than telling people to be humble is telling people to know their limits. In other words, know the truth.

I will end with this. Though she was before my time, I think Israel’s former prime minister, Golda Meir, would agree humility and confidence are pair-bonded. Below is the way Ms. Meir put it.